right for once

right for once

fiction
edward w pritchard


The good looking bad guy, Weston, actor  [ Rory Calhoun] in " River of no Return" tells adoring girl friend Marilyn Monroe that he was always told " stick to your peanut stand even if you never sell another nut". Great advice.

Author in fairness must praise himself for making the right call on the Chinese stock Alibaba [Baba] an online retailer. Author originally said stock was way over priced when the stock was soaring and 125 and 200 price targets abounded.

Now stock sells below IPO price in 60's and Barron's predicts a further 50% drop. No matter the stocks high was close to 120 and now may fall to 30. That's still a high valuation for a company with Chinese governance of their book keeping and business practices.

The Chinese government will one day learn how to oversee the stock market and companies there. Meanwhile it will be a bumpy ride for investors.

Here's what I wrote before on Alibaba:

 PS author has been reading, watching and studying intensely the stock market for forty some years if anyone is asking and is occasionally competent in valuing stocks in an irrational market maybe based on his training as a loan workout guy.

ADBRIGHT

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2014

alibaba soars; meanwhile where are the dissenters?

Alibaba soars; meanwhile where are the dissenters?

fiction
Edward w Pritchard


Singles buying day in China. The premise being if you have no love interest in your life you go on line and buy your self something. Since there are so many people in China retail on line volume was voluminous yesterday on single's day.

Alibaba controls 75% of on-line shopping in China and the stock exploded again. Alibaba [ baba] came public at $68, first buy/sell order during IPO at $90, now at $116 [AM premarket]. That's down a bit from yesterdays high price on the stock but the stock is soaring.

China has had an unusual amount of social change in the last fifty years. Google Cultural revolution [here]. Now China embraces Capitalism with open arms [ sort of]. Meanwhile the ruling communist party strains their brains to create new slogans to describe how to merge Communist ideals of social order with capitalism's flights of fancy designed to create a hundred ways to sell stuff to everyone. Every day becomes a new reason to buy stuff which is good for business and creates jobs, surging GDP and stockholder value. Everyone in China will get a new apartment, new job and a latest generation cell phone. All will be well in China and hence the world.

Meanwhile what happens to those lonely singles after their room in their grandmother's basement is full of stuff they don't use and they lose their job or begin to fall behind in the race to the top " American style" to have more money, more things, and more of their lives spent chasing the new emphasis on the material side of reality. Slogans forgotten, Confucius ideas on one's place in the World laughed at as old fashioned.

Here's what I wrote on the occupy wall street movement in America. Occupy wall street and it's ideals and discontents is a movement now sleeping in America but probably not dead. A few rioters in St Louis being the latest generation of critics of the American way of life.

What happens when the disaffected in China get tired of chasing the elusive American dream of owning lots of neat stuff? How will Ablibaba keep selling and growing if the ruling Chinese communist party decides to change the slogans back to the old Confucius ideals of individual sacrifice and communist corporate communal values of less is more.

Here's what I wrote before on the occupy wall street movement in America. America has it's divide between rich and poor, happy and disaffected, lonely and contented, and hopeful and nihilistic.

What changes are coming to the American dream and how will it effect China and of perverse interest to this discontented lonely author, the long term stockholders of Alibaba?