Statistical Prediction of the Future by Artificial Intelligence

Statistical Prediction of the Future by Artificial Intelligence

Commentary on the Kent State Shootings of 1970
draft 1

fiction
edward w pritchard

Things had ended like a lush pear hitting the side of a brick building. The impact annihilated the pear but the changes to the building were subtle and took time to work out.

Gabby

Gabby's weaknesses were gambling, blue's music, and sassy women and at Friday afternoon at 4:00PM she was anxious to hit the bars in downtown Kent and indulge her trio of afflictions to excess.

But Gabby's cravings had vanished like a fat man throwing a pack of cupcakes out of a speeding car window to keep from eating them. Craybo had answered back with a cryptic list of casual relationships and the results were displayed on the monitor in front of her. Gabby spent 57 hours per week programming and talking to the expensive super computer as a business analyst at Kent State University in Ohio; and she thought she knew the machine well. Craybo had surprised her and she felt like she had discovered a secret about a childhood friend. Gabby was surprised and intrigued by the information Craybo had flashed on the monitor in front of her. She was about to hop on the exercise bike she rode in her office and just before she started she typed:

" Why is it so windy in Kent, Ohio tonight May 03, 2010?

Craybo responded instantly:

Chief Big Foot-Wounded Knee December, 1890
Kent State Shootings- May, 04 1970
Jackson State University- May 14, 1970

Most Likely connection- Gaia Theory- theory proposed by James Lovelock, which views earth as one single organism. Physical components of planet are intimately related. Probability of relationship of increase in wind speed being casual 96%.

Gabby hoped off the bike and typed back to Craybo, reiterate:

Craybo displayed a haunting picture of the dead Indian chief Bigfoot in the snow at Wounded Knee.
Below the picture on the monitor read a caption:

Soldiers stacked the dead Indian bodies in the snow like firewood. Chief Bigfoot had been dragged by dog carry to [ some sources indicate horses] to the field hospital because he was very sick with pneumonia. Big foot was carried out of the field hospital bed by soldiers and was among the first Indians struck by the seventh cavalries rifle shots. Woman and children were hunted down in the snow up to 2 hours later. More metals of honor were given to soldiers at wounded knee than any other American battle.

An hour later Gabby decided, over riding her better judgment to call Beverly.

Beverly

Beverly was happy. She had a new car to drive to her dinner date at a Chinese Restaurant in Beechwood, Ohio and the new car had a spectacular stereo system. She was listening to List's Hungarian Rhapsody #2 as she drove through the light expressway traffic North toward Beechwood.

Beverly was startled by her old cellphone sitting on the passenger seat, It was the voice of dead actor Cary Grant. Beverly didn't know the phone could signal by voice. The voice of Cary Grant repeated twice in succession:
"emergency dial 27"
"emergency dial 27"

Beverly first thought was it was the cell phone company trying to sell her something. However curious she dialed "27"

It was a short phone message.
" Choate I need you."
"See me at KSU business school trading floor"
Gabby

The message was left at 4:47, 7 minutes ago.

Beverly pulled off the expressway North and parked on the berm. The last time she felt a jolt of emotion like this was when her twin 10 year old brother had pulled the starter cord on the lawn mower while she had the fingers of the left hand on the spark plug and the right hand gripped the spark plug wire.

Gabby needed her. What could inspire Gabby to break the silence between them after Gabby had dumped her two complete years earlier.

Beverly didn't know if she could go into the school of business again but she frantically searched for an exit to turn around the new car and head southeast toward Kent, Ohio.

End part 1

Beverly parked he new car close to the door of the department of business the Kent State University. The University was eerily deserted for a school day. It must be the unusual howling wind. Strange for a May wind, it felt like late fall. Beverly still had the electronic key card Gabby had given her in her purse and it still worked. That was good because no one seemed to be around, not even the foreign students who seldom goofed off on weekends.

As she entered the third floor exit by the stairs, Beverly was reassured and calmed to see the same janitor from when she had spent hours and hours here two to three years ago. The janitor still weighed over three hundred pounds and moved very slow. He was an intent young black man with blotchy light skin and reddish hair. He always seemed to be working very hard to keep the building clean for the students. He seemed to remember Beverly, and greeted her in the customary way, tipping his cap he always wore, smiling a little and although he was a few years younger than her calling her ma-dame.

The trading floor at the KSU school of business had been one of the finest simulation trading pits in the world when built five years ago. A wealthy alumni had donated over five million dollars to build the expensive theater, state of the art monitors, and electronic stock and bond ticker tapes. Current quotes on stocks and bonds were displayed in real time twenty four hours a day. Gabby's and Craybo's job was to keep the room on line and to monitor relationships between the millions of events that occurred in the world, daily; past and present and the effect they had on stock and bond prices. The students would then agonize over deciphering the mysterious arcane connections.

The trading room was dark when Beverly walked in but each of the various sized twenty monitors displayed the same picture. Beverly carefully walked down the sloping steps of the intimate auditorium, slid between the seats and slid in next to Gabby. The theater style seats were plushly padded, but perhaps to keep the students awake in lecture, the arm rest were a heavy iron, intensely uncomfortable and high like European airport seats. The two former friends were very close together in the seats but because of the art deco iron armrests were not touching. No greeting occurred.

Gabby was staring at the picture on the monitor. Beverly recognized the picture from her expensive Ivy league education. It was Big Foot the sad old Indian, symbolizing the death of the frontier in America; and his soul looked in anguish as it struggled to escape the confines of his frozen body. The picture was difficult to look at intensified by being on all twenty screens around the room.

Beverly let out a single sigh after she read " soldiers stacked the dead Indian bodies in the snow like firewood. Beverly remembered a history professor saying that maybe the soldiers removed the Indian blanket from Big Foot's body to avoid any association with the protection provided by the ghost dance and invisibility shirts and blankets that some Indians, but not Big foot and his followers, thought would protect them from soldiers bullets.

As Beverly sighed, Gabby awoke from her revelry and without greeting, pushed a few keys on the laptop she had been clutching tightly to her chest. The picture of Bigfoot stayed on the first screen but all the rest filled with the famous picture of Mary Vecchio standing over a dead Jeff Miller at Kent State student protests May 04, 1970. Immediately however, that picture morphed into a picture that appeared to be also at Kent State May 1970 that Beverly didn't recognize. It was a body covered by a morgue blanket laying on the ground.

The caption read:

"William Schroeder was a ROTC student and had been shot dead center in the chest as he walked between classes at Kent State May 04, 1970." A second quote obviously a cut and pasted caption said " the Ohio guard had been certain when quizzed that the shots were fired accidentally and as evidence often mentioned the fact that William Schroeder had only been hit once in the chest." Schroeder was not believed to be involved in the altercation with the Ohio guard.

After a moment, Gabby again worked with the laptop and Bigfoot picture stayed on the first monitor, William Schroeder's picture stayed on the second and the rest of the monitors showed another body covered by a police morgue blanket at night.

The Caption said:

Two students were killed today at Jackson State University in Mississippi. The second dead student was a high school student walking home from his part time job at a grocery store and was struck by shot gun fire to his chest. The boy, James Earl Green was on the high school track team. The boy was not believed to be involved in the campus rioting.

Keeping the three pictures of dead Americans in the first three screens, Gabby made another key stroke and the remainder of the monitors were filled with the same X Y Cartesian bar graph.

ADD X Y CHART HERE
THREE SLOPING LINES RISING and STEEPENING LEFT TO RIGHT
1890 TO 2020
WOUNDED KNEE, KENT STATE, JACKSON STATE
INCREASE IN AVERAGE YEAR ON YEAR December 29 TO MAY 31 WIND SPEED



The caption read:

Average wind speed: 1. December 29, 1890 , to May 03, 2010 Wounded Knee and Pine Ridge reservation 2. Kent State University Main Campus may 04, 1970 to May 03, 2010 and Ravenna Arsenal same period 3. Campus Jackson State University Lynch Street and Jim Hill High School, same period

Conclusion
Wind speed at all locations increasing year on year. Likely hood of randomness less than 5%. Most likely cause, 1. Human intervention highly unlikely. 2. Most likely occurrence involves Gaia theory. Mechanism unknown based on current data. Metaphysical explanation also possible, not probable.

Gabby pushed one more key on the laptop and the electronic stock ticker running around the room like a crown molding displayed the same phrase over and over. It said: When soldiers carry guns humans die. It ran right to left slowly and then occasionally reversed and ran the opposite way. Beverly looked at Gabby and Gabby spoke for the first time. Can you check my statistics Romy.

Romy was a nick name Gabby had called Beverly before when she wanted her to get out of a warm bed at 3 AM to get her some taco bell food, or some cherry flavored miniature cigars. Beverly's second nickname was Choate. Beverly had been at the Cleveland Museum, early one Sunday morning to meet her twin brother who was having marital problems and wanted advice. He stood her up. He was to meet her at 9:30 AM and didn't call to cancel until 10:00AM. While walking around to kill time Beverly had noticed Gabby intently studying the Mondrian painting temporarily on loan, Broadway Boogie Woggie. Gabby had said two things as Beverly paused near where Gabby sat. " What does it mean Choate?" and a minute later " Choate, I don't do well any more with beautiful women." Choate is an expensive prep school in Connecticut and Gabby later said Beverly looked like a Choate.

Gabby dozed while Beverly rechecked her statistical correlations on her Texas Instruments BA ll plus. Each correlation on the yellow paper Gabby had handed checked out. Beverly fell asleep in the warm room also.

Beverly awoke to the sound of gaited horse beats. Gabby was walking back in forth near the lecture podium alternately slapping a football and spinning it high in the air, nearly touching the sloping ceiling.

When Gabby saw Beverly was awake she said:

" Can you play the piano for me at Hanks, Romy".
End part 2

Part 3

Several small bars in Kent that night just closed early, not because of the wind; Beverly E-xx was going to play piano at Hank's.

Hank Grenson locked the first floor door, after Gabby and Beverly entered, put two ton Marston there as bouncer and instructed the wait staff that no food or drink could be ordered or carried out while Beverly played.

Beverly played for twenty minutes, one continuous improvisation on List's Hungarian Rhapsody #2 and Jimmy Hendricks purple haze. At times she played a little of Ohio by Crosby Stills and Nash. After about 15 minutes Gabby walked to the front of the smoky room, put her right hand on Beverly's shoulder, brushed Beverly's hair lightly with her left had and said softly as Beverly continued to play, talking like Cary Grant, "Goodbye Choate"

Gabby had walked out of Beverly's life again.

Monday at Beverly's office there was a single hand written chart on a fax. It was the same chart of the casual relationship in wind speed in December to May at wounded Knee, Kent State and Jackson State. But Bloomfield Michigan was a fourth variable

On the bottom,
Gabby had typed;
Craybo, predict likely next location of increase in wind speed, ie fourth casual variable, by location

Craybo: foreign or domestic

Gabby: continental USA

Craybo: Likely hood next location, increased wind speed attributable to Gaia theory Bloomfield Michigan reliability 87%

Probability caption 85%
likely next caption- 4 to 8 local Muslim business leaders shot fatally by overhead unmanned drones while peacefully protesting increasing property taxes, no charges were filed
probable date- spring 2019- 50%
probable date May 2020- 75%
probable date April 1st 2019 to may 31,2020 - 85%


Gabby: Craybo is there a way to warn humans of this probable occurrence
Craybo: negative based on historical record

Gabby: Craybo does this have to happen?
Craybo: probable, not certain

Gabby:Why
Craybo:When soldiers carry guns humans die.-- strike
Revise: When soldiers or drones carry weapons humans die